The Treaty and the Jobs Number
The USMCA non-renewal landed July 1. The NFP miss landed July 2. The peso headwind we forecasted is live; the dollar engine that was meant to amplify it just lost a cylinder. Both positions are open. Both are being tested. Here is exactly where we stand.
The Line Holds the Pen
One week into the live record, the system is doing what it was built to do: the flagship is confirmed and quietly paying, the hedge is pinned against a line we drew before we owned it, and tomorrow's close — not our mood — decides what happens next. This is the issue where the discipline gets tested in public.
CPI Verdict
The print we said was the tell has spoken, and it cut both ways: headline inflation at a three-year high locks the Fed in place and underwrites the flagship — while a soft core takes the panic bid out of gold and presses our hedge against its tactical line. Here is what we do about it.
Monday Setup — Pressure Test
Two sessions into the book and it's split — the USD/MXN flagship is paying (+1.1%), the gold hedge is red (−3.3%). Regime unchanged at Risk-Off USD Strength. Wednesday's CPI is the first real test of a Fed that can't cut.
Global Macro Framework — June 2026
The macro backdrop at launch: a measured Fed cutting cycle, BOJ normalization, and the nearshoring tailwind for the Mexico–US corridor.
Borrowed Calm
The inaugural issue. The paper portfolio opens into a Risk-Off USD Strength regime — a closed Strait of Hormuz, a stuck-hawkish Fed, and a dollar bid. We pass on the framework's standing short-USD/JPY idea and go long USD/MXN: the peso is held at a risk-on price in a risk-off world, into a summer of USMCA brinkmanship. A long-gold complement, the benchmark baselines, and the framework — on the record before the move.
The Founding Methodology
The complete methodology, standards, and governance framework — published before a single trade is made. The framework precedes the record.
Publication cadence
What lands, and when
The week ahead: key variables and the analytical lens to apply.
Pre-event positioning analysis on the key upcoming catalyst.
The full research document: macro, regime, the trade, portfolio review, post-mortems.
Cumulative return vs. both benchmarks; post-mortems on all closed positions.