The macro environment at the Acies launch is defined by three structural conditions: the Federal Reserve's transition from a restrictive to a moderately accommodative posture; the lagged normalization of Bank of Japan policy and its impact on global carry; and the ongoing reconfiguration of supply chains generating a measurable tailwind for the Mexico–US corridor.
United States: the Fed and the dollar
The Fed concluded its 2022–2023 tightening at a 5.25–5.50% peak. The easing cycle that began in late 2024 has brought the policy rate to roughly 4.00–4.25% by mid-2026 — a measured pace, constrained by stickier-than-projected services inflation and a tighter-than-assumed labor market.
The Acies base case for H2 2026 is a continuation of the measured cutting cycle, ending the year near 3.75%. That implies a modestly softer trade-weighted dollar — constructive for EM assets and commodity currencies — but not the decisive decline that would trigger a broad EM re-rating. The primary upside risk is a reacceleration in wages or energy that forces the FOMC to pause.
USD/JPY — the BOJ normalization thesis
The Bank of Japan's exit from ultra-accommodation is the most significant structural FX development of the cycle. After a decade of negative-to-zero rates, the BOJ has begun hiking, compressing the carry differential that drove USD/JPY above 160 in 2024. Acies holds a medium-term structural view favoring yen strength as normalization continues — a six-to-twelve-month thesis, not a tactical trade. The risk: a global risk-off event that drives simultaneous dollar strength and defensive demand, temporarily overwhelming the signal.
GBP/USD and EUR/USD
Relative BOE hawkishness versus the Fed supports a modest constructive bias on cable, trading in a 1.27–1.32 range. A sustained break above 1.32 confirms the view; a weekly close below 1.27 invalidates it. EUR/USD is range-bound — the rate differential alone does not provide a durable directional thesis, and Acies is neutral pending a material growth divergence.
USD/MXN — the peso
The peso has been resilient through the Banxico cutting cycle, supported by remittances, nearshoring FDI, and carry attractiveness. USD/MXN trades in a 17.00–17.80 range. Acies views the peso as technically extended on the strong side, with the carry premium leaving it vulnerable to a correction on any deterioration in global risk appetite or domestic political headlines — while the structural bull case (FDI, remittances, Banxico credibility) remains intact at a medium-term horizon.
Current opportunity themes
- USD/JPY short — BOJ normalization; yen undervaluation on a real-effective basis; carry unwind over six-to-twelve months.
- GBP/USD constructive — relative BOE hawkishness; UK services-inflation persistence.
- Selective USD/MXN carry — sized to political-risk tail and technical extension.
- Industrial FIBRA exposure — nearshoring demand in the Monterrey, Guadalajara, and Bajío corridors; FIBRA yield spread over CETES still constructive.
- EM equity ETF tactical — a supportive Fed cutting cycle, selective on geography to avoid China-heavy products.
This briefing is pre-launch macro context. The first documented positions are entered and published in Vol. 01.