Research
What we're
writing about.
Gold Is Already Through Its Stop. Friday's Close Decides If It Stays There.
Spot gold rose to $4,118.63 at 9:00 a.m. ET, but remained below this book’s $4,150 weekly-close stop heading into Friday’s test; Wednesday’s Fed minutes showed a unanimous rate hike and signaled another move was likely by year-end. USD/MXN held between 18.05 and 18.34, confirming its position above the 17.60 line, while a second tanker strike off Qatar sent Gulf transits plunging and Brent up 3% to $104.83, just shy of the book’s $105 entry trigger.
The Bond Market Broke a 2007 Ceiling. The Peso Did Almost Everything We Asked.
The Treaty and the Jobs Number
The USMCA non-renewal landed July 1. The NFP miss landed July 2. The peso headwind we forecasted is live; the dollar engine that was meant to amplify it just lost a cylinder. Both positions are open. Both are being tested. Here is exactly where we stand.
The founding principle
A thesis is documented before the position is taken — and published before the price moves.
Not aspirational — structural. Three disciplines carry it, and the paper portfolio is the auditable record that proves it.
Global macro & FX
Central-bank policy, growth differentials, and the FX regime — treated as the first and most direct translation of a macro thesis into a documentable position across G3, commodity, and EM pairs.
The Mexico–US corridor
A trade relationship exceeding USD 800 billion, systematically under-researched: peso dynamics, ADRs, FIBRAs, and the nearshoring tailwind — analyzed bilingually from primary sources.
The documented paper portfolio
Every position timestamped in TradingView and published with full thesis documentation. A transparent record of conviction — entered before the move, reported without revision.
The paper portfolio
Every position. On record.
Timestamped entries in TradingView, thesis published before every trade, and no position ever removed from the record. Reported in USD against two benchmarks — separately, never blended.
The passive baseline for a US investor: price appreciation plus dividends reinvested.
The peso risk-free rate, adjusted for USD/MXN movement — the honest USD opportunity cost of holding CETES.
The publication
What you get,
every week.
The Setup
The week ahead: the key variables and the analytical lens to apply. 300–500 words.
The Event
Pre-event positioning analysis on the one catalyst that matters — rate decision, data print, or corporate event. 500–800 words.
The Issue
The full research document: macro, regime, the trade, portfolio review, and any post-mortems. 2,000–4,000 words.