From idea to post-mortem
The seven-step process
Global Macro Assessment
Fed, ECB, BOE, BOJ, Banxico posture and commodity signals → a primary thesis, the key risk, and a map of the most sensitive instruments.
FX Regime Classification
Classify the prevailing regime on the two-axis framework. Published every week; regime changes get dedicated treatment.
Opportunity Identification
Find instruments mispriced versus the dominant thesis, with a defined repricing catalyst inside the target horizon.
Thesis Documentation
Answer all seven thesis questions in writing. A thesis that cannot answer all seven is not yet a thesis.
Entry & Timestamping
Entered at market in the TradingView paper portfolio on the day the thesis completes. The timestamp is immutable.
Monitoring & Exit
Reviewed every week. Exit priority: stop-loss → thesis realized → thesis falsified → 16-week time stop.
Post-Mortem
Every closed position gets a published post-mortem. Losses receive the same depth of analysis as wins. No exceptions.
Step 4 · Thesis documentation
A thesis answers seven questions — in writing, before entry
A thesis that cannot answer all seven is not yet a thesis — it is macro commentary. Commentary informs the portfolio; only documented theses enter it.
Investment philosophy
Eight founding beliefs
Markets misprice information asymmetries, not information absence.
The edge comes from processing shared information faster and without consensus anchoring — the framework, not proprietary data.
Most market commentary is manufactured after the fact.
Post-hoc analysis is easier to produce and harder to falsify. Acies accepts the reputational risk of the documented pre-trade thesis.
Foreign exchange is the purest expression of macro views.
Policy, growth differentials, and risk appetite manifest in currency prices faster and with greater clarity than in equity or credit.
Home-market concentration is universally underpriced.
A portfolio fully correlated to one jurisdiction is a concentrated bet — cross-border allocation is standard construction, widely neglected.
The Mexico–US corridor is systematically under-researched.
A trade relationship exceeding USD 800 billion receives a fraction of the institutional research depth it warrants. The gap is structural and addressable.
The best macro conclusions are built from micro observation.
Frameworks that do not translate to specific instruments and entry levels are opinions, not analysis. The circuit must run both directions.
Time-horizon arbitrage is available and underexploited.
A 4-to-16-week horizon sits between retail/algo days and institutional quarters — systematically underserved.
Intellectual honesty is a competitive advantage that compounds.
Publishing every outcome, including losses, is the precondition for every stated conviction to carry analytical weight.
Why it is different
Core differentiators
Pre-trade documentation
Every position is published before any price movement from the entry level — an auditable analytical record, not post-hoc commentary.
US-based, USD-denominated
All analysis, P&L, and benchmarking from a US base in USD — no currency-translation ambiguity in the record.
Cross-border depth
Bilingual in English and Spanish, with direct familiarity with Banxico, BMV, and Mexican market structure.
Full FX spectrum
Foreign exchange treated as the primary expression of macro views — G3, commodity, and the full EM FX universe.
Dual benchmark transparency
Reported against the S&P 500 and USD-adjusted CETES, separately, so each reader judges against their own passive alternative.
Independence
No compensation accepted from any issuer or institution. Coverage decisions made solely on analytical merit.