GLD

Gold has retraced to ~$4,500/oz from the $5,595 January panic peak as the initial shock faded, but the structural bid has not: real rates are negative-to-low with the Fed unable to cut into 3.8% inflation, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and official-sector buying continues.
The pullback prices a de-escalation that has not happened. We are long GLD at ~$413 (gold ~$4,500),
targeting $459 (gold ~$5,000, below JPM's $5,055 Q4 2026 average), over 8–12 weeks. Gold is the
cleanest dollar- and rates-agnostic hedge in the book and a deliberate, disclosed complement to
the USD/MXN flagship within the same Risk-Off USD Strength regime.

Confirmation: weekly close above $4,700 spot and bids held on escalation.
Falsification: a durable ceasefire that reopens Hormuz and a hawkish Fed lifting real yields — exit on a weekly close below $4,150 spot.