{"asOf":"2026-07-25T02:11:34.520Z","launched":true,"positions":[{"id":"cde49c74-40f9-4d4a-9a91-f2e70c647f60","ticker":"USD/MXN","name":"FX Spot","dir":"Long","assetClass":"FX","entryDisplay":"17.2682","price":17.475000381469727,"pct":1.197579258230319,"thesis":"The peso is the most extended risk-on currency in the world, held at a risk-on price in a\r\nrisk-off regime. \r\n\r\nWe are long USD/MXN at the 17.35 area, targeting 18.40, over an 8–12 week horizon. \r\n\r\nThree forces line up against the peso into the summer: \r\n(1) a stuck-hawkish Fed at 3.50–3.75% and a firm dollar (DXY ~99.4), with US inflation back near 3.8% blocking further cuts; \r\n(2) a compressed ~290 bp carry differential that has stopped widening after Banxico's final cut to 6.50%; \r\n(3) the summer USMCA formal review, a guaranteed source of tariff-tinged headline risk the spot rate has not discounted, layered on top of an active Strait of Hormuz oil shock that is already driving safe-haven dollar demand and EM-FX outflows. \r\n\r\nSpeculative long-peso positioning is already unwinding alongside BRL and ZAR.\r\n\r\nConfirmation: weekly close above 17.60 and bids held on USMCA/Hormuz headlines. \r\nFalsification: a credible, durable Middle East de-escalation plus a constructive USMCA opening restoring the\r\nrisk-on carry bid (peso back toward 17.00) — exit on a weekly close below 16.85. \r\nConsensus reference: Rabobank 17.9 over three months; our 18.40 reflects the underpriced joint tail.","date":"2026-06-04","status":"open","exitDate":null,"sizeUsd":120000},{"id":"3afde160-084b-4487-8f5a-d89e9d35ed8f","ticker":"GLD","name":"SPDR Gold Shares","dir":"Long","assetClass":"Commodity","entryDisplay":"411.27","price":372.4606,"pct":-9.436477253385844,"thesis":"Gold has retraced to ~$4,500/oz from the $5,595 January panic peak as the initial shock faded, but the structural bid has not: real rates are negative-to-low with the Fed unable to cut into 3.8% inflation, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and official-sector buying continues. \r\nThe pullback prices a de-escalation that has not happened. We are long GLD at ~$413 (gold ~$4,500),\r\ntargeting $459 (gold ~$5,000, below JPM's $5,055 Q4 2026 average), over 8–12 weeks. Gold is the\r\ncleanest dollar- and rates-agnostic hedge in the book and a deliberate, disclosed complement to\r\nthe USD/MXN flagship within the same Risk-Off USD Strength regime. \r\n\r\nConfirmation: weekly close above $4,700 spot and bids held on escalation. \r\nFalsification: a durable ceasefire that reopens Hormuz and a hawkish Fed lifting real yields — exit on a weekly close below $4,150 spot.","date":"2026-06-04","status":"open","exitDate":null,"sizeUsd":80000}],"portfolioReturnPct":-4.119448997577763,"benchmarks":{"spx":{"level":16588.01,"returnPct":-2.134768154290456},"cetes":{"usdmxn":17.475000381469727,"returnPct":-0.2912093077254374,"nominalRate":0.063}}}